Recommendation 2

Use individual risk assessment tools that provide a basis for tailor-made interventions.

In accordance with Good Practices 16 and 19 of the GCTF’s The Hague-Marrakech Memorandum12, States are encouraged to develop and use individual risk assessment tools to determine the threat a RFTF poses to society. Effective risk assessment will indicate whether a RFTF is vulnerable to (further) violent extremism and is receptive for rehabilitation. An initial individual risk assessment should be performed by trained professionals as early as possible once an FTF has returned and/or has been legally detained. It can help to determine which interventions are potentially effective and what tailor-made interventions are appropriate. Risk assessment tools will help States to allocate resources and improve the effectiveness and efficiency with which RFTFs are dealt with.

The risk assessment tool should contain a clear set of risk indicators that should relate to the needs of an individual (motivational factors), the narrative (adherence to an extremist ideology) and networks (the intent and capability to carry out terrorist attacks as well as the support of the social network for the extremist ideology). Risk assessment should be conducted by persons proficient in understanding the many facets of radicalization and the local and cultural context.

In-depth risk assessments should make use of multiple sources including interviews with the individual, family members, and social networks observations, and case files. Re-assessment is essential to develop an overview of the risk trajectory over time. States are encouraged to validate their risk assessment tools – internally and, if possible, externally. States could consider cooperating with each other on harmonization of tools and exchanging data. Risk assessment tools that are being used in prisons for violent extremist offenders can also provide valuable lessons learned for the development of risk assessment tools for RFTFs.

12. Supra note 1